What I learned selling a record amount of real estate in a year when transactions hit a 25-year low

I had my best year ever during one of Toronto’s weakest market's on record. Being actively in the trenches negotiating, advising, and watching buyers and sellers make real decisions gives you a very different perspective than reading headlines from the sidelines. Below are the key observations that stood out most to me in 2025, and why I believe they matter heading into 2026.

1) Always remember, click-bait headlines can be misleading. Everywhere you look you’ll find news stories about the condo market “imploding” or houses selling for “hundreds of thousands below asking” but these articles rarely tell the whole story.  

For example, here is a dynamic in the market that may surprise you: 

• Condo prices are down 11% between January 1st 2025 and December 31st 2025 and down 27% since the 2022 market peak. 

• Freehold home (detached, semi-detached, townhouse) prices are down 9% during the same period, and down 30% since the 2022 market peak. 

“Wait a minute - you’re telling me freehold prices are down MORE than condo prices since the 2022 frenzy?”  Yes. 

Understanding these dynamics and why they are happening will help you make smarter decisions in your buying, selling and even leasing decisions.   I make a point of educating my clients as much as I can so they have a deeper understanding of what’s really going on and how to reap the greatest benefit from it. In 2025 many of my first-time buyer, trade-up and investor clients acquired excellent properties at prices not seen in 5 to 8 years by being aggressive while others sat on the sidelines. 

In my opinion 2025 was, and 2026 will continue to be a time to tune-out the noise and dig deeper.  A rare period in GTA real estate when you can make moves to get ahead a little faster if you take the time to understand more about the market dynamics and how to position yourself while others tune-out. 

2) If you are selling and buying in the same market it often makes more sense to make a move in a down market, even if you are unhappy with the current market value of your home. 

Real estate moves in percentages. That matters.

For example:

• Your $1M condo may now be worth $890K (down $110K)

• A freehold that was $1.5M in January 2025 is now worth $1,365,000 (down $135K)

Net result? If you are selling the condo to trade-up to the house, you’re ahead by $25,000. And the larger the trade-up, the greater the advantage.  Most don’t think about this dynamic and may miss-out on an opportunity to get ahead by trading up while prices are in decline. 

3) The strength of a property’s fundamentals are even more valuable in a down market.

A big part of my job is helping clients cut through the smoke and mirrors to find homes that don’t just feel right, but perform well over time. When I’m on a showing with buyers, one of the first questions I ask myself is: How easy will this be to sell down the line?

Is the location in consistent demand?
If it’s a condo, are the fees at or below the city average?
Is the floor plan broadly appealing?
Is the school district desirable?

In today’s buyer’s market, the properties that check the most boxes are the ones still selling and in some cases, attracting multiple offers. This is very much a survival-of-the-fittest market, and it becomes obvious very quickly which properties have strong fundamentals and which do not.

4) For sellers, home preparation is more important than ever.

Buyers now have significantly more choice and bargaining power with higher inventory levels. For sellers, completing small repairs, making smart cosmetic improvements, staging properly, pricing competitively, and working with a skilled negotiator are no longer optional - they’re critical.

Andrew and I listed and sold multiple properties in 2025 where success depended on maximizing every one of these tactics. In contrast, competing listings in the same buildings or neighbourhoods - where it was clear the prep work hadn’t been done - often sat on the market for months.

Some Final Thoughts

Markets like this are uncomfortable — and that’s exactly why they create opportunity.  While the current market dynamics don’t cater to everyone’s situation, it does for many!  The best real estate decisions are rarely made when everything feels easy and obvious. They’re made when headlines are loud, sentiment is negative, and fundamentals quietly matter more than ever.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or doing both, the winners in this cycle won’t be the ones who waited for certainty — they’ll be the ones who acted strategically while others hesitated.

-Steve